The stocks of the ASEAN (the Association of South East Asian Nations) offer good value. The major countries of the ASEAN are Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines (there are others). Since very few Singapore stocks are listed as ADRs, the major ADRs out of the ASEAN region include Telekom Indonesia (TLK), at a forward P/E of 7.5, and Philippine Long Distance (PHI), at a forward P/E of 8.6. These prices are cheap, but these are volatile countries, and are priced with that assumption built in.
Value In Emerging High-Tech Stocks?
Some Asian countries are particularly known for their high-tech operations. Let's take a look at a few of the first-world companies in Asia... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is at a forward P/E of 23. India's drug giant Dr. Reddy's Labs (RDY) is at a forward P/E of 16. And Korea's SK Telecom (SKT) is at a forward P/E of 8.5. I like Korea, but I can't get excited about India or Taiwan.
China's two ADR giants, Petrochina (PTR) and China Mobile (CHL), are not that expensive at forward P/Es of 12 and at two times book, even after their fabulous share price rises recently.
To me, Korea looks the most attractive. Indonesia and the Philippines might appear cheap, but those countries are always risky. The other countries aren't enormous bargains... unless you're someone like hedge fund manager James Ayer, who can afford to seek out small, undiscovered stocks in these countries.
The folks at Templeton Funds have a long history of finding stocks like these. Their Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF) might appeal to you if you're interested in getting exposure to slightly lesser-known China/Taiwan/Hong Kong plays. The Scudder New Asia Fund (SAF) offers aggressive exposure to nearly all of Asia, and it trades at a discount to its underlying value. If Ayers is right, that fund should do very well.
The safest route might be what I recommended months ago to readers of my newsletter (True Wealth): the Emerging Markets ETF (symbol EEM). It's basically an emerging markets index fund that's up over 40% since inception six months ago.
AMR and Continental Airlines look
risky because their stocks have climbed the most since
September. And investors are making big bets against these
airlines with huge short positions (investors go short by
borrowing stock and then selling it, betting the stock will go
down so they can replace it at a lower price).
About 25% of the available shares in both of these airlines are
short. But this huge short position could actually be bullish
for shareholders, points out Todd Salamone, vice president of
research at Schaeffers Investment Research.
After all, what happens if things go right for these airlines,
as King expects? The stocks will advance. Then shorts may feel
pressure to buy the stock to cover their positions, driving the
shares up higher.
US Airways shed a lot of costs in
bankruptcy, and it should be more profitable than AMR or
Continental. Yet its stock is cheaper. Thats why J.P. Morgans
Baker rates the stock "overweight" with a price target of $47 by
year-end. The stock may be weak near-term because millions of
shares subject to lock-up arrangements after the bankruptcy will
be free to trade this spring.
Likewise, UAL parent company of United Airlines, should
do well because it strengthened its balance sheet and cut costs
while it was in bankruptcy.
The biggest threat is a sharp spike
in oil prices that would saddle airlines with higher fuel costs.
But airlines are aware of this risk -- one reason they have been
careful about adding too much capacity, says Rogers. "The
airlines have stopped pricing tickets on the expectation that
oil is going back to $25 a barrel," Rogers says. "They have
stopped living in never-never land."
Another big risk, of course, is that the economy slows down --
killing demand and reminding investors that airlines go through
regular cycles of boom and bust that create sharp volatility in
their stocks.
That is one reason Morningstar advises buy-and-hold investors to
steer clear of these stocks. "We do not recommend legacy
airlines to long-term investors who seek stable price
appreciation throughout economic cycles," Morningstar said in a
recent note.